Concerns over the threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Kashmir have come into sharp focus, with a recent scientific study warning that at least five vulnerable glacial lakes could impact more than 2,700 structures and key infrastructure in downstream areas of Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam districts.
The issue was highlighted in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly on Tuesday, where the Minister for Disaster Management, Relief and Rehabilitation, responding to a question by National Conference legislator Tanvir Sadiq, shared details of the findings.
According to the Minister, the study—carried out by researchers from the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir and published in the Journal of Glaciology—has identified Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar lakes as falling in the “very high susceptibility” category. Collectively, these lakes pose a potential threat to 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, stretches of road infrastructure and a hydropower project located downstream.
Experts, however, clarified that “high susceptibility” does not indicate an immediate risk of breach, but suggests that these lakes could become hazardous under certain triggering conditions, making them more prone to sudden outburst floods.
The study, which examined 155 glacial lakes across the Kashmir Himalaya, is among the most comprehensive assessments of GLOF vulnerability in the region. It utilised hydro-geomorphic indicators such as lake expansion patterns, dam stability and surrounding terrain to evaluate risk levels, offering a critical reference point for policymakers and disaster management agencies.
Despite the findings, scientists noted that precise prediction of flood magnitude, speed and warning time remains difficult due to the absence of reliable data on glacial lake volumes. Accurate assessments, they said, require detailed bathymetric surveys, which are currently lacking for most Himalayan lakes.
Addressing this gap, the Minister informed the House that the University of Kashmir has acquired a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with financial support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. The equipment will be used to carry out depth surveys of vulnerable glacial lakes in the western Himalaya starting in 2026, with the aim of improving hydrodynamic modelling and risk estimation.
Officials stressed that the potential impact extends beyond remote areas, as many of the downstream zones include populated settlements and critical infrastructure. The study recommends continuous monitoring of high-risk lakes through satellite imagery and field inspections, along with the installation of early-warning systems and the formulation of eco-sensitive zoning plans in vulnerable regions.
Efforts are already underway to develop GLOF-specific early warning systems tailored to mountainous terrain. These systems are expected to combine satellite-based surveillance, ground sensors and near real-time communication networks to ensure timely alerts in case of emergencies.
However, researchers cautioned that turning these initiatives into fully functional systems will require sustained funding, institutional support and coordinated action between government agencies and local communities.
With climate change accelerating glacial changes across the Himalayas, experts have underlined the need for proactive planning and strengthened disaster preparedness to minimise risks and protect lives and infrastructure in Kashmir’s vulnerable regions.