Only on the basis of its 2019 Lok Sabha poll performance in which it won 18 of the 42 seats and bagged 40.64 percent of the votes is the BJP optimistic about 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections.
The political graph of the BJP in West Bengal has seen a significant rise since the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, but the state assembly polls in May 2021 polls will not be an easy task as Mamata Banerjee led TMC has a record of improving its performance in elections.
TMC on the other hand was able to bag 22 seats and 43.69 percent votes. BJP was still four seats and 3 percent votes behind Mamata’s party.
From Lok Sabha polls in 2014, BJP saw a quantum jump as at that time it was only able to win 17.02 percent of the votes and two seats -Darjeeling and Asansol.
The performance of the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was a vote for Narendra Modi as PM. The political influence of TMC is limited to the politics of West Bengal and the voters chose BJP over Congress, the Left and the regional parties.
A worrying factor for the BJP is that TMC sees an upswing while its performance slides in the West Bengal Assembly elections. This is probably due to Mamata Banerjee’s charisma (just like Modi).
Since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, when it won 19 seats and got 31.18 percent of the votes, TMC has grown by leaps. In 2014, TMC won 34 seats and 39.79 percent in the Lok Sabha elections, despite the Modi wave.
TMC improved its tally in 2016 assembly polls by bagging 211 seats and 44.91% of votes, fighting on its own steam.
In 2019, its share of votes decreased by only 1.22 percent over the 2016 assembly polls.
It is clear from all accounts that the Bengal polls in 2021 are going to be highly polarized.
The Act on Citizenship (Amendment), NRC, differences between the Centre and the government of the state. From all accounts, it is clear that the 2021 Bengal polls are going to be highly polarized.